Ramblings of an old Doc

 

This one really caught my eye. It seems that one of the original designers of the PC thinks the answer is “Yes.”

The engineer who thinks so is none less that IBM’s Middle East and Africa’s CTO, Mark Dean. He was one of the magic twelve who designed IBM’s PC

thirty years ago.

“PCs are being replaced at the center of computing not by another type of device — though there’s plenty of excitement about smartphones and tablets — but by new ideas about the role that computing can play in progress. These days, it’s becoming clear that innovation flourishes best not on devices but in the social spaces between them, where people and ideas meet and interact. It is there that computing can have the most powerful impact on economy, society and people’s lives.” -  Mark Dean

He himself states he rarely sits plunked down at his desk in front of a box and here’s where he really sheds some light on his feeling:

“I, personally, have moved beyond the PC as well. My primary computer now is a tablet. When I helped design the PC, I didn’t think I’d live long enough to witness its decline. But, while PCs will continue to be much-used devices, they’re no longer at the leading edge of computing. They’re going the way of the vacuum tube, typewriter, vinyl records, CRT and incandescent light bulbs.” – Ibid

I echo this. I never thought I’d use one a Pad. I chided Island Dog (who I hope is laughing heartily at my hubris). I now use it all the time, as it’s my favorite reader. In the past, I never thought I’d use a laptop nor a smart phone. Guess what.

The fact is, that our gadget horizon has expanded radically, and portability is a super must, along with vertical and horizontal integration for business/productivity as well as social networking, and entertainment. Being a Luddite won’t gain you a thing. There are many advantages (and some disadvantages) to these new platforms.

Our tech is revolutionizing our culture. No one can deny this after watching the Middle East upheavals and the London riots.

I’d like to see more ‘real’ contact between people as opposed to ‘virtual’ but face it, distances are still real.

That’s why this Community is so important and why WinCustomize is our hub.

My personal feeling is that skinning needs to be more relevant to this new world as well. I feel Stardock’s apps have to infiltrate the business and social worlds even more strongly despite Windows 7 and because of the coming Windows 8.

Windows XP is still very prevalent in the business world, but that will start declining in the near future. Wallpapers need to include mobile/pad sizes. There needs to be a miniWB for smart phones and Windows pads, as well as skinned app-tiles to defeat the horrendous “Metro” monocolored rectangles.

Since Windows 8 will have a choice (we believe) of task bar or Metro, then both these should be addressed…. and the female market should  be addressed.

What are your thoughts?

 

Source:  http://www.techrepublic.com/blog/hiner/engineer-of-original-ibm-pc-declares-end-of-pc-era/8924?tag=nl.e101


Comments (Page 2)
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on Aug 13, 2011

unacomn
What if you could use a tablet to remotely operate your PC and stream stuff from the PC to the tablet or other mobile device.

You can use GTMPC on your mobile device to remote in to your PC now.  The tablet/iPad can even function as a trackpad.  I use a Citrix app (Citrix makes GTMPC) on my iPad to remote in to an XP virtual desktop every day.  With an Apple BT keyboard, just like being there.  Only drawback at the moment is the inability to print locally (the remote environment virtualizes installed local printers for printing and there are none to virtualize on the iPad).  Universal AirPrint has kind of fallen off the radar & it's hard to know if that will ever get beyond the limited HP capability it has now.

on Aug 13, 2011

LightStar
You cannot develop skins on a tablet

Not yet, anyway.

on Aug 13, 2011

Pads are still PC's! What are you guys talking about. How is that not still a personal computer? Is it "Personal"? Yes. Is it a computer? Yes. Therefore Pads, laptops, even smartphones could be considered personal computers. I would even consider a piece of technology that you place over your eye and you can do all the stuff you do on your desktop as a PC. If you mean Desktops are going to be going the way of the dinosaur then i would say yes but not yet. Once pads can do what Desktops can do and you can have a virtual keyboard come out and hand movements for character movement to take the place of a mouse, none of that touch screen crap, can't play a proper game like that in my opinion, then desktops will be obsolete.

on Aug 13, 2011

nice post-doc.
I think tablets could dominate the labor market in near future because of the mobility simply, but until then a few more years will go by even with the though in the back of my headthat  the intel chips are getting better and better even their included graphic onboard chips.
Tablets are simply perfect for the job market because you can / could simply take your work home.
But on the other hand, the PC offers up to 20++ times the horsepower, and will continue to use it for various services like rendering for example and there is no tablet that could replace a pc anytime in that soon, or other tasks else you name them since the list is long.
But it will happen sooner or later.
My conclusion the only benifitial thing one would go and trade the PC against a Tablet PC,  is the mobility but even the the laptop didn´t  manage to wipe those brick looking like manly cavemen power machines from our desks =P
Also if they would become as powerfull as an middle class PC you couldnt use them without burning your fingers or melting down your screen there is not enough room for cooling a normal non-overclocked cpu can reach up to 95C those poor fingertips.
PS they should start with lowering the prices for tablets and devices like SSD´s or PCI-E SSD´s  to speed up the trade process and give our technological progress a boost then i would totally agree with the whole thing... now iam going downstairs to play on a 6 year old console called xbox

on Aug 13, 2011

LightStar
You cannot develop skins on a tablet, therefore I will stick with my desktop PC (when it gets fixed).  This netbook sucks!

that and giving up my widescreen monitor and full keyboard and...

I think these devices are really neat and companies develope them for alturistic reasons (not). My wife and I are looking for new phones, we've had them for some time. smart phones are out of question because we don't want to pay for a data plan that we probably will not use. the text messaging phone are nice but are still set up for internet access (almost all the apps require internet), even the flip phones come set up with apps for internet access. internet access can be blocked for the text type and flip phones.

we pay about $70/mo. for our two cell phones on a family plan, I think for the amount of useage we pay way to much. I'm wondering how much so of you pay for use of the pad and phones?

on Aug 13, 2011

Gwenio1

Quoting Philly0381, reply 8I say let the consumers and not the developers dictate what the market place will be.

Leaving it to consumers = leaving it to the marketing departments.

Wait 'til you see tomorrow's article, Gwenio1.

unacomn
Although, here's a thought. What if you could use a tablet to remotely operate your PC and stream stuff from the PC to the tablet or other mobile device.

Well, it exists. I'm not saying this is the best software, but just providing a portal for you to investigate further:

http://scitechie.com/08/best-way-to-remotely-control-your-desktop-pc-mac-iphone-tablet-pc-android-free/

"Go to my pc" is another... thank you, Daiwa.

BlackRainZ
Pads are still PC's! What are you guys talking about. How is that not still a personal computer? Is it "Personal"? Yes. Is it a computer? Yes. Therefore Pads, laptops, even smartphones could be considered personal computers.

Yes. By PC I was referring to desktops.

Thank you, Roloccolor.

 

on Aug 13, 2011

Streaming tech has sure come a long way. This looks very promising, but at the same time, it means that desktops can coexist with mobile devices, you just won't do much with them directly. Turn on, configure, install the software and then start working from a nice sunny park, far away from the cobwebs of ye old dungeon. Well, sure, there's that cloud stuff, but I wouldn't really trust all my data to a cloud. I'm a bit paranoid.

Now all I have to do is find a tablet for 100 dollars or less. 

on Aug 13, 2011

Try  Tylenol.

 

on Aug 13, 2011

Thank God for Pen and Paper.

on Aug 13, 2011

I can't remember how many times I have read such prophecies. I think from the rise of the first Xbox - periodically, over a few years, again and again.

Sure, many genres have moved to consoles - particularly catering players with shorter attention span. Sure, casual gamers may look no farther than solitaire or farmville on their phones.

However:

1) I have yet to see a platform that can run first person shooters besides PC. Sure, you have Halo, you have various "aiming guides", and retarded cover systems like in gears of war, but nothing compares to the fluidity, precision and effortlessness of keyboard plus mouse in FPS. You can argue, but that's all you can do. With a gamepad, you wrestle with the gamepad, not with the enemies.

2) I have yet to see a platform that can do complex strategy games. Sure, you have Ruse for consoles - but you don't have Europa Universalis on Xbox. And I seriously doubt you will see it on Tablets anytime soon.

3) You can't play keyboard intensive games easily on tablets - interactive fiction, Dwarf Fortress, roguelikes. 

 

There will always be niche markets that will justify exclussive development for PC. Look how successful Paradox Interactive is with their hardcore strategies.

on Aug 13, 2011

they'll have to pry my cold, dead fingers off the keyboard/trigger.......

on Aug 13, 2011

Lantec
they'll have to pry my cold, dead fingers off the keyboard/trigger.......

I like watching the idiots surfing the net while walking down the side walk and to dumb to notice a red light. Horns, tire screeches, yelling and screaming. I LMAO every time witnessing natural selection in action.

on Aug 13, 2011

I don't think a tablet can do what I like to do on a computer. Playing different games offline, playing flash games online, surfing the net with many open tabs, using word and excel.

Actually I am still surprised that Apple's ipad will not play flash. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

As for the future of skinning and Wincustomize how about fixing the site's bugs like slow forums before starting something new?

on Aug 13, 2011

Customization is the PC's advantage over the Pad. That large box I have humming over in the corner will always do what I want. If not ... I will 'plug' something in so it can.

 

on Aug 13, 2011

I love my Desktop PC.  One of the best aspects of owning a Desktop is to easily upgrade/customize the crap out of it.  Everything from adding more memory, a second drive, installing additional PCIe cards or CPU coolers, and even cool bright LED fans and cold cathode lights.  Laptops on the other hand, are much harder to customize (hardware wise) and have VERY limited space.  So no cool LED fans for you.

Smartphones and Tablets?  Virtually no customization.  Lame.  The best you could do is buy a decal from DecalGirl (http://www.decalgirl.com/) or something. (I have a decal for my Nintendo DS [because plain white really sucks], but that's besides the point.)  They do have skins for iPads and various smartphones/tablets, as well as gaming devices.  I guess that's better than nothing.  But most smartphone/tablet users can't upgrade their hardware at will.  Even if they could, the technology is so small and compact, that even accidentally moving a chip in the slightest could render the device useless.  *sigh*.  The only time i'd use a tablet or smartphone for is a boredom buster, like if I was stuck at an airport or something.  Never would I use them for any serious work. 

Sadly, we haven't really seen any significant NEW advancements in PC technology within the past decade or so.  It's just more or less, more CPU cores, or larger hard drives/RAM capacities.  And Solid State Drives are mostly based on already-existing NAND flash technology via USB Flash Drives.  CPU clock speeds haven't hit over 4.0 GHz in mainstream PCs, without overclocking. Is the theoretical limit of clock cycles ~3 GHz?  Why aren't we seeing 20 GHz CPUs today? 

Hard Drive Capacities are becoming so large now that most people (including myself) won't even use half their drive.  I believe that Hard Drives need to die, or at least become secondary storage devices.   Instead of making HUGE capacities that most consumers won't even take up half the space of, why not develop a new "SATA IV, or new interface" drive for faster speeds?  Oh, wait.  That's what Solid State Drives are for.  If the Desktop PC still prevails, then SSDs need to be pre-installed in new PCs.  I can't believe that brick and mortar stores still don't carry SSDs.  What a joke! (I bought my OCZ Vertex 2 from Amazon) BnM stores are WAY behind the times. selling a technology that's been on display for a year, or two, or five.  They're just barely rolling out with USB 3.0 compliant devices.

My word of advice is if you're still a die-hard Desktop fan, buy everything online, or at specialty computer stores.  Stay away from the likes of mainstream discount stores (like Best Buy, OfficeDepot, Wal-Mart, etc.), as they advertise tech that's a year or more old (even if it's "NEW", chances are it's obsolete before ever being manufactured) and have VERY limited options of PC peripherals.  Buy from Amazon, Newegg, TigerDirect, or other hardcore gaming/Desktop PC enthusiast sites.

A few sites/publications such as MaximumPC still offer a myriad of information dedicated to hardcore Desktop PC enthusiasts (such as myself).  The publication often times has tutorials on building PCs, reviews PC parts/systems/cases, etc, and it does expand into laptops/smartphones/tablets/other gadgets, but Desktops are it's primary focus.  I'd recommend Maximum PC for anybody who declares themselves as hardcore Desktop PC enthusiasts.  Other publications exist, such as PCWorld.

*sigh*, wow, that's a lot of rambling I just did.  Just stating my points.  Now i'm done.

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