Ramblings of an old Doc

 

Their motives were sincere. They wanted to assess the risk of a 1918 “Spanish Influenza” (H1N1) type outbreak in the future. They believe that since there are Avian Influenza viruses, the H1N1 outbreak resulted from mutations in that virus causing cross species infectivity and transmission.

The experiment (their graphic):

 

Reasonable, it would seem, until you think a bit and conclude that “post hoc ergo propter hoc” logic isn’t really valid.

Koch's postulates are as follows:

  • The bacteria must be present in every case of the disease.
  • The bacteria must be isolated from the host with the disease and grown in pure culture.
  • The specific disease must be reproduced when a pure culture of the bacteria is inoculated into a healthy susceptible host.
  • The bacteria must be recoverable from the experimentally infected host.

They’re limited (http://www.medterms.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=7105), but valid.

The investigators weren’t using the original virus. They reverse engineered present viruses to yield one with less than 3% genetic variance from the 1918 virus. Full stop. So, what did these investigators do? They reassembled (as best they could) one they believe was the original. By doing so, all they measured was the number of steps needed to assemble an artificial or ‘most likely’ virus and test its mutability. So much for that, until you realize that about 50 million people died in that outbreak (not counting the ones who died of Parkinson’s Disease as a result of it as well). That’s the most devastating disease outbreak in recorded human history.

So, they took logically invalid steps, created an artificial pathogen and then tallied the number of steps needed to turn it into an hypothesized real killer.

Their conclusion? The varieties of Avian Influenza have the genetic ingredients necessary to underpin the emergence of a virus similar to the deadly 1918 influenza virus, and that the Swine Flu vaccination would grant some immunity.

"The point of the study was to assess the risk of avian viruses currently circulating in nature," explains Kawaoka, who, in addition to his appointment as a professor in the UW-Madison School of Veterinary Medicine, holds a faculty position at the University of Tokyo. "We found genes in avian influenza viruses quite closely related to the 1918 virus and, to evaluate the pandemic potential should such a 1918-like avian virus emerge, identified changes that enabled it to transmit in ferrets. "With each study, we learn more about the key features that enable an avian influenza virus to adapt to mammals and become transmissible," says Kawaoka. "Eventually, we hope to be able to reliably identify viruses with significant pandemic potential so we can focus preparedness efforts appropriately." – Science Daily

I think that their goal to find out future possible risks was laudable…but incredibly dangerous and irresponsible, and not fully valid since what will happen in the future isn’t really predictable, even if the virus they assembled was the real H1N1. Also, in this day and age, creating things like this is extremely dangerous outside a super secure laboratory such as the one in Fort Dietrich.

 

Sources:

http://www.cell.com/cell-host-microbe/abstract/S1931-3128(14)00163-2 

http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/jun/11/crazy-dangerous-creation-deadly-airborne-flu-virus

http://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/controversial-study-created-airborne-virus-similar-1918-pandemic-influenza-virus

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/06/140611131551.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily+%28Latest+Science+News+--+ScienceDaily%29


Comments
on Jun 24, 2014

It seems like a well intentioned attempt to create an imperfect predictive indicator.  Why don't they dig up some of the bodies of victims of the 1918 influenza disaster from places like Alaska?  Such remains are likely still frozen and might provide actual 1918 bacteria cultures to work with.  Am I being too simplistic, again?

on Jun 24, 2014

In fact, Elana the original virus has been recovered from the body of a woman buried in the Alaskan (soon not to be) permafrost. [http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/07/070702145610.htm]

What these researchers did regarding a predictive tool wasn't really kosher because they assembled pieces of existing Avian Influenza viruses into something resembling the original Spanish Influenza virus. 

To then make a leap and say this could happen in nature isn't really justified since they did not use live birds to see if those viruses could change in a living system into an 'original' type virus.

So all their work was for naught...except to teach people how to do things they really shouldn't be doing. And it's dangers were clear from the onset. They might have caused an outbreak...except that in the end they found partial immunity from flu vaccines (swine flu) already existing.

on Jun 24, 2014

For mine, this kind of experimentation should only be done to find/create effective vaccines for existing, ongoing diseases... not to mess around with old/extinct diseases to create various other strains which could escape and get into the wild.  Not responsible, to say the least.

on Jun 25, 2014

Obviously they have too much free time on their hands

DrJBHL

In fact, Elana the original virus has been recovered from the body of a woman buried in the Alaskan (soon not to be) permafrost. [http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/07/070702145610.htm]

What these researchers did regarding a predictive tool wasn't really kosher because they assembled pieces of existing Avian Influenza viruses into something resembling the original Spanish Influenza virus. 

To then make a leap and say this could happen in nature isn't really justified since they did not use live birds to see if those viruses could change in a living system into an 'original' type virus.

So all their work was for naught...except to teach people how to do things they really shouldn't be doing. And it's dangers were clear from the onset. They might have caused an outbreak...except that in the end they found partial immunity from flu vaccines (swine flu) already existing.

 

So, My idea was a good one.  Looks like they have too much free time on their hands.

on Jun 25, 2014

ElanaAhova
So, My idea was a good one.

I recently saw a TV show that had some lunatic digging up corpses in Alaska to release Spanish Influenza on an unsuspecting human population.  He was of a new species of man and supposedly immune to it, but luckily for the human race he wasn't immune and, along with his death, his grand plan failed. 

I can't remember the name of the show now, but it has a female scientist leading the charge against the new species of man and was sadly short lived with just 13 episodes.  There were endless story lines that could have been pursued, but obviously the powers that were decided it was to be canned to air yet another cheap and nasty lifestyle/reality show that cost bugger all to produce.

on Jun 26, 2014

starkers
was sadly short lived with just 13 episodes.

Producer caught the disease too? ....

on Jun 26, 2014



Quoting starkers, reply 5was sadly short lived with just 13 episodes.

Producer caught the disease too? ....

Hehe!  You've been quiet just lately... red wine night?

As for the producer, he likely wanted the series to continue beyond 13 episodes, but some arsehole TV exec[s] decided it wasn't bringing in enough advertising revenue and gave it the chop... as happened to Firefly and numerous other shows with great storyline/plot potential.  Bastards!