Italian scientists found guilty of manslaughter for not predicting an earthquake.

Published on October 24, 2012 By DrJBHL In Personal Computing

When this controversy started, I posted in Forums about it. This post comes as follow up.

So, these scientists (and one government official) were put on trial for manslaughter. The essence of the matter was that they did not predict this earthquake which killed 300 people in 2009 in Abruzzo, Italy.

Back then, as now I felt that this was irrational as both then and now there is no method or testing which can reliably predict an earthquake, even if these scientists were on the Italian “Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks”.

Apparently, some local lab tech predicted (based on Radon levels and seismic tremors) that there would be a major earthquake. The official on trial told the people that the tremors were releasing energy, not to fear and have a glass of wine. The earthquake struck on April 6th, 2011.

Apparently in Italy, not much has changed since Galileo’s trial back in 1633. Galileo made a big claim which while correct, could not be proved, and more relevantly, he did not communicate his findings to the Church since any discovery which would cause a change in Biblical interpretation first had to be communicated to the Church. In 2009, the official's communication was equally faulty. He should have stated that the lab tech's method of prediction has not yet been supported by science, and that no reliable method for prediction yet exists. He sought instead to calm a nervous populace.

As a result of Galileo's trial, astronomy (in Italy) was held back hundreds of years.

As a result of the current farce, I wonder who will be foolhardy enough to study or work in the field of geology in Italy?

Expectations must be balanced by reality. While we can hope for the advances we’d love to see in science, expecting them is quite another matter. Worse still are unrealistic expectations.

I hope these scientists’ sentence can be appealed successfully. They haven’t been sentenced yet as in Italy, the verdict undergoes a review process before sentence is pronounced.

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/compost/post/italian-scientists-found-guilty-of-manslaughter-for-failure-to-perform-magic/2012/10/22/8f52e872-1c6d-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html

Comments (Page 2)

mastroego

on Oct 25, 2012

Again, there's a big misunderstanding here.

You think of them as "scientists", while in this case you should regard them as "public officers". That was their role, what they were paid for. It's not about "failing to predict", rather about giving "misleading advice", which amounts to not living up to their specific task.

Which of course still doesn't constitute manslaughter anyway (and the merit itself would be debatable on its own to boot).

I'm only saying that journalists paralleling this case to Galileo's are just trying to get more hits.

I also believe that the scientists themselves when having viewed the official's statement should have added that no earthquake can be predicted with any accuracy and emphasized safety precautions. At most, and in hindsight, there might have been some negligence in not expanding on the official's statement... but certainly not manslaughter. That is ludicrous.

This, to summarize.

DrJBHL

on Oct 25, 2012

mastroego, you're right that I think of scientists as scientists... why else would they, and not some political flunky be hired?

Weren't they paid to give scientifically based advice? If not, why were scientists hired?

Uvah

on Oct 25, 2012

The long and short of it......earthquake prediction is not possible given the present state of technology. That the scientists failed to predict the quake is due to that fact not...through any fault of their own. To charge them with manslaughter is more than just ludicrous.....it is downright inhumane!

mastroego

on Oct 25, 2012

DrJBHL

reply 18

mastroego, you're right that I think of scientists as scientists... why else would they, and not some political flunky be hired?

Weren't they paid to give scientifically based advice? If not, why were scientists hired?

You know, I think you're pin-pointing the original anomaly here: instead of accepting chairs at the "Committee for Big Risks" they probably should have acted as advisors for an actual decision maker/speakperson. Scientists, gods bless them, are not politicians nor managers, they aren't generally suited for those tasks, as this case, in its twisted way, proves.

Again, I'm not saying they deserve what happened to them (actually I think the sentence will be undone in the second grade of the trial, or the third if it comes to that). Just that the facts are more subtle than the press reported.

DrJBHL

on Oct 25, 2012

mastroego

reply 19

instead of accepting chairs at the "Committee for Big Risks" they probably should have acted as advisors for an actual decision maker/speakperson.

Who knows what they were 'offered'... It seems quite weird to me.

Lantec

on Oct 26, 2012

I agree that manslaughter is absurd in this case.

Aleatoric

reply 14

There is no context (in any *rational* world) where the natural reticence of a scientist constitutes any fault at all, let alone manslaughter.

I'm not so sure.....How about the "Give me a billion dollars and I'll figure out how to predict earthquakes for you" scenario? How about the scientist who creates a world wide panic and institutes massive spending by saying the polar caps will melt by 2010? Shouldn't those guys be libel for something?

Jythier

on Oct 26, 2012

Well, it's a good thing he said they would melt by 2010, so that we would do something to prevent it. And look, they haven't. So good job, scientist!

Fuzzy Logic

on Oct 26, 2012

As an astronomer, I failed to predict the asteroid which is going to wipe out the Earth tomorrow.

Apologies for any inconvenience caused by the short notice

GoaFan77

on Oct 26, 2012

Well the Italian Justice system had a better day today. Hopefully Berlusconi doesn't escape on an appeal. His country certainly needs all that money he's been trying to hide.

DrJBHL

on Oct 26, 2012

Fuzzy Logic

reply 23

As an astronomer, I failed to predict the asteroid which is going to wipe out the Earth tomorrow.

Apologies for any inconvenience caused by the short notice

Always figured humanity's last words would be "Well fock!".

mastroego

on Oct 26, 2012

Italy has its problems, but once again news coverage creates misleading perceptions.

Yes, our country has a staggering debt, but it also has great national riches which could, in theory, cover it. Also. its citizens have personal savings - huge savings if you consider the pro-capite average of the rest of the world. Many nations (even "strong" ones) are in far worse shape than ours, we you take all the numbers into account.

It's not money that worries me; not right now at least. The real problem is the demographic curve and the current generation of politicians. Which is to say, our underlying cultural attitude that permits them to emerge.

Sinperium

on Oct 26, 2012

Welcome Guest! Please take the time to register with us.
There are many great features available to you once you register, including:

Richer content, access to many features that are disabled for guests like commenting on the forums.
Access to a great community, with a massive database of many, many areas of interest.
Access to contests & subscription offers like exclusive emails.
It's simple, and FREE!